New census data analysis suggests Pennsylvania advantage for Trump and GOP in 2024

Posted 19 days ago


Recent migration out of Pennsylvania and between its counties could present an even closer 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump in the critical battleground state than in 2020, an analysis of new census data shows.

"Uneven patterns of in-and out-migration could work to make what was a closely contested 2020 presidential campaign even closer in 2024," penned Berwood Yost, director of Floyd Institute's Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden defeated Trump by under 100,000 votes, winning the state 50% to 48.8%.

Going into 2024, the Keystone State is expected to play a similarly pivotal role, especially given its high percentage of manufacturing workers – a demographic that both campaigns have made a point of lobbying in the early months of the election year.

Since 2020, when the last census was taken, Yost noted that census data released earlier this month showed counties won by Trump had a net gain in populace of about 4,500 people. As for Biden-won counties, they posted a combined loss of more than 45,000 people.

Overall, Pennsylvania saw its population decline since 2020, with a Census Bureau press release even highlighting Philadelphia County as one of the largest declining counties in the U. S.

"The biggest losses at the county level were in Pittsburgh and Allegheny County and Philadelphia. And those are two of the big centers of Biden's support," Yost told Fox News Digital in an interview.

"And so does that affect his ability to win by large margins in those counties? That's a real issue," he said.

In an exclusive statement to Fox News Digital, Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said, "With just 35 percent job approval, Joe Biden is floundering in his home state of Pennsylvania. Between higher gas prices, surging crime, and failed Democrat policies crushing families at every corner, it's no wonder that Pennsylvanians across the Commonwealth are increasingly rejecting the failed Biden agenda and supporting President Trump."... (Read more)