The 2024 Senate battle has begun and the electoral map does not favor Democrats

Posted 12 days ago


While Democrats pulled off a better than expected night on Nov. 8th, the party will face tremendous headwinds in maintaining their razor-thin Senate majority come 2024. Democrats will be defending 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs next cycle. Of their 23 seats up for election, seven are in states won by former President Donald Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

Opportunities for Democrats to flip Republican-held seats are less encouraging. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida is considered one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities in 2024, along with Republican Sen. Ted Cruz's Texas seat. Both senators won by narrow margins in 2018.

While Florida has been swing state territory in the past, Republicans won big in the Sunshine State on Election Day. Gov. Ron DeSantis’ decisive victory, flipping historically blue counties like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, suggests Florida is increasingly Republican ground – not to mention Sen. Marco Rubio's 16-point win over Democrat Val Demings.

Next election cycle, the GOP will not be defending any seat in a state won by President Biden. Unlike this year’s midterms where the most competitive races were in states Biden won – Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.

As the midterms slowly come to a close and political hopefuls shift their sights to 2024, here is where Republicans eye big pickup opportunities in the Senate next cycle.

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, perhaps the most vulnerable senator in 2024, has not yet announced his intentions to run for re-election. Then-President Trump won the state by a whopping 39 percentage points in the last election, making this seat ripe for a Republican pickup.

Manchin played an instrumental role in getting the Inflation Reduction Act across the finish line and may face a political price for his perceived capitulation in a predominantly working-class state with one of the leading coal industries in the nation.

Rep. Alex Mooney, the five-term West Virginia congressman, announced his intent to run for the Senate seat just a week after the midterm elections.

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has also been eyeing Manchin’s seat for quite some time, and hinted that he was considering running again. He narrowly lost to Manchin in the state’s 2018 Senate race by just 3 percentage points.

Ohio is increasingly becoming solid Republican territory. Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020, and JD Vance won his Senate race this year by a 7-point margin, despite an underwhelming performance from Republicans elsewhere in the 2022 midterm elections.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, first elected in 2006 and currently the only Democratic statewide office-holder, announced he would seek reelection last week.... (Read more)