2024 poll: DeSantis edges Trump in New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary

Posted 48 days ago


A public opinion survey in New Hampshire, the state that for a century has held the first primary in presidential race, indicates that Florida Gov. Gov. Ron DeSantis has a razor-thin margin over former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary match-up.

According to polling numbers released on Wednesday by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, 39% of likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State would support the first-term Florida governor, with 37% backing the former president. Respondents were provided a list of potential contenders for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, and DeSantis margin was well within the survey’s sampling error.

Former Vice President Mike Pence stood at 9% in the survey, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, at 6%. The other possible Republican White House hopefuls on the list offered by the pollsters stood at one percent support, or less.

The survey suggests support among New Hampshire Republicans for DeSantis is surging. Trump held a 43%-18% advantage in support of DeSantis the last time the UNH Survey Center asked a 2024 GOP presidential nomination preference question, in October of last year. Trump topped DeSantis 47%-19% in UNH’s survey last July.

"Trump slipping in pre-primary polls is part of a typical pattern, UNH Survey Center director Andrew Smith said. "A party’s losing candidate in the prior election is typically the best-known person in the party. As the primary gets closer, new candidates emerge and attract more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election."

DeSantis has seen his popularity surge among Republican voters in his state and around the nation over the past two years, thanks in large part to his relentless pushback against COVID-19 restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic as well as his aggressive actions in the culture wars. While DeSantis has repeatedly deflected talk of a potential run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination as... (Read more)