Good news for Republicans in PA: In the home stretch, Republicans further narrow Dems' voter registration edge

Posted 34 days ago


This is it. We’ve now passed the deadline to register to vote in the 2020 presidential election and Pennsylvania Republicans are peaking at the right time again.

The Republicans made substantial gains in 2015 and 2016 ahead of Donald Trump’s surprise victory, only for the Pennsylvania Democrats to bounce back over the past four years. Since last spring’s primary, though, Republican registrations have steadily grown.

For instance, back in May the Democratic margin statewide was 803,427. As of the Oct. 19 deadline, it’s been reduced to 700,853. The grand total of 9,016,163 registered voters consists of 4,207,190 Democrats, 3,506,337 Republicans and 1,302,636 others.

The numbers below indicate the shifts since my last update on Aug. 31. Now, let’s dig into the numbers!

A quick note: I explore our changing voter trends by tracking the gains one party accumulated in registrations over the other party. For example, R+500 means that the Republican Party gained a net 500 more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party did over this time period while D+500 indicates the opposite.



Centre: R+374

Clearfield: R+1,446

Columbia: R+712

Huntingdon: R+907

Juniata: R+408

Mifflin: R+844

Montour: R+187

Northumberland: R+980

Snyder: R+620

Union: R+248

You’ll see here first a phenomenon that took place across the commonwealth, as Republicans experienced a late surge in rural counties. I’ll go more in-depth on this below, but remember to keep your eye on it. It also appears that Penn State’s COVID struggles may prevent the usual Democratic victory in Centre Country.... (Read more)